2025 was a year full of surprises; some good and some bad. It seemed like each week a dramatic new story would dominate the headlines, causing us to forget the big story everybody was talking about just a few weeks before.
From natural disasters to political strife to the moves of the market, there were a lot of major unexpected events. These were things it would have been nice to know about ahead of time.
Wouldn't it be great if we could assemble a group of experts to tell us in advance what the New Year will bring?
In 1995 BBC's World of Tomorrow TV program attempted to do just that. Enlisting the help of leading scientists and other experts, they boldly predicted what the world would look like 30 years in the future—in the distant year 2025.1
Among their predictions they said:
- The internet would be taken over by "business barons" who would restrict access to the general public, setting off riots.
- Surgeons would be ranked by their performance stats (like athletes) and all surgeries would be performed remotely.
- Most interpersonal communication would be carried out via hologram.
- The space junk problem would be solved by deploying giant blobs of foam jell.
Now that 2025 is over, we can assess how they did.
Some of these predictions came partially true. But not a single one of them was accurate enough to be actionable. For example, if you had invested heavily in space foam in 1995, it doesn’t appear that it would not have paid off.
Basically, each of these forecasts was made by taking a major trend of 1995 and then imagining it developing in a straight line over three decades. The problem is that real events are usually set off by unlooked-for and unforeseen causes. For example, there's strong evidence to suggest that the Black Death, which wiped out half the people of medieval Europe, was indirectly caused by a volcano. The eruption in 1345 blocked the sun, causing crops to fail. Italy had to import grain from Central Asia, which included rats infested with fleas carrying the pathogen.2
But the biggest barrier to accurately forecasting the future is the unpredictability of human behavior.
Philosopher Karl Popper analyzed why even the most scientific predictions about the future are so consistently inaccurate. He concluded that while the study of history can reveal trends, there’s no guarantee these trends will continue. Just like we saw above.3
So, we’re pretty safe in predicting that 2026 will be full of the unexpected—both good and bad—for all of us. There’s just no telling what might happen. It’s yet another great reason to stay flexible with your expectations and broadly diversified with your investments.
What we can determine ahead of time is how we will respond. We can cultivate the personal resilience and financial discipline to meet any challenges head on.
We wish you and yours a very happy New Year and a rewarding 2026.
Sources:
1. http://go.pardot.com/e/91522/news-articles-cjdn10yk0k1o/972l1w/2985332495/h/SfhX3EUrkDXdBbjbLKok8FQjPhQUAdpdO2C1ATvOy-U
2. http://go.pardot.com/e/91522/news-articles-cy5gr2x914ro/972l1z/2985332495/h/SfhX3EUrkDXdBbjbLKok8FQjPhQUAdpdO2C1ATvOy-U
3. http://go.pardot.com/e/91522/iki-The-Poverty-of-Historicism/972l23/2985332495/h/SfhX3EUrkDXdBbjbLKok8FQjPhQUAdpdO2C1ATvOy-U